Tonight You Belong to Me

Long, long ago a favorite song of mine was written, however, the original version isn't all that inspiring to me.

The song, Tonight You Belong to Me, was written in 1926 by Billy Rose, and recorded with its entire lyrics by Gene Austin the following year.

Austin was a popular screen, radio & recording artist during the mid 1920's into the 1930's. He was known as "the voice of the south land" and a pioneer in the "crooning" style of singing. A jazz artist at heart, he was equally at home singing country ballads, blues and spirituals. His improvisational style apparent in his recordings, added a unique flavor to his interpretations.



Today's popular shortened version was subsequently released 1956 by Patience (14 years old) and Prudence (11). It was also recorded by the Lennon Sisters of Lawrence Welk fame--Dianne, Peggy, Kathy & Janet.

The melody was also performed by Steve Martin and Bernadette Peters in the 1979 movie, The Jerk, with Martin playing the ukulele and Peters playing the cornet in a romantic & humorous scene.

My friend, Ed, likes the Lennon Sisters, so here is their song to enjoy for the moment.



For those who are partial to Steve Martin, as I am, here is the song, as resurrected years later in The Jerk, in a poignant, yet humorous manner.



Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't include the version sung informally by this cute couple from Utah, Kimball and Angela.

A Rapidly Changing Landscape

In my last blog I highlighted an important statement made by Scott Brown, an obscure politician from Massachusetts, recently catapulted into the national spotlight, being elected in a remarkable victory for US Senator from the Commonwealth.

To reiterate, he said in his acceptance speech:

I will work in the Senate to put government back on the side of people who create jobs, and the millions of people who need jobs - and starts with an across the board tax cut for individuals and businesses that will create jobs and stimulate the economy. It's that simple!

There were early hints of this voter sentiment: tea party patriot rallies last summer and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. The former were ridiculed by some, demonized by others, and the new governors were thought to be elected on account of local issues.

It took one person, Scott Brown, to crystallize and clarify the national concern of voters, a significant message from people not affiliated with either major political party. Their messages:

• Stop health care in the questionable form pushed by Washington, this the greatest concern found in voter exit polling.

• Don't Mirandize terrorists. After the election the nation was to learn that intelligence and homeland security leaders testified to Congress that they weren't even consulted about this protection given to the underwear bomber, 50 minutes after officials confronted him.

• Cut out the secret backroom deals with special interests. There was the Louisiana Purchase, followed by the Cornhusker Kickback assented to by a senator from my home state. The creme de la creme shocked people recently when select unions were granted a 5-year tax exemption on their Cadillac health insurance plans.

These are issues that I do not analyze on these pages. But I do explore macroeconomic matters, to which we now turn to the fourth voter message from Massachusetts:

• Don't raise taxes, cut them.

I have been holding onto a hallmark economic investigative report, produced last fall by Silvia Ardagna and Alberto Alesina, professors of Economics at Harvard University, and also members of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the group who makes the call of whether the US in in a recession, or not.















Their study examines how effective government, ie, fiscal, stimuli have been in alleviating economic difficulties. This far reaching study spans four decades, from 1970 to 2007, and examines remedies and results for twenty-one countries in a panel of OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States.

We will examine this in my next blog article.

A Taxing Proposal

Earlier this week Americans awaited, the White House wondered and certain citizens cast their ballots, in a state election of far reaching scope, both in Massachusetts and nationally.

A nominal Republican candidate was selected to represent the Commonwealth in the US Senate, the selection of a party affiliate for senate in that state that had not occurred for four decades, mostly on the strength of the unaffiliated, independent voter.

His name: Scott Brown.


Brown said in his acceptance speech, I will work in the Senate to put government back on the side of people who create jobs, and the millions of people who need jobs - and starts with an across the board tax cut for individuals and businesses that will create jobs and stimulate the economy. It's that simple!

In those remarks he referenced another US Senator from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts who several decades ago echoed these same remarks:

It is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now. We need an across-the-board, top-to-bottom cut in personal and corporate income taxes.

He called high tax rates a danger to the very essence of the progress of a free society.

In the speech he was scheduled to deliver on Nov. 22, 1963, he planned to report proudly: We have proposed a massive tax reduction, with particular benefits for small business.

He never got that chance to utter those encouraging words; that very day his life was snuffed out. But you can hear first hand what that great Senator, later to become a great US President, had to say...and those words are nearly identical to those expressed this week by Scott Brown.




So much for rhetoric: can tax cuts really help an economy, or can the preferred solution in recent months of TARP relief, auto bailouts, stimulus packages, Cash for Clunkers...and Caulkers, and still more costly initiatives the federal government plans to roll out, be more effective?

Next week we will examine a extensive, hallmark study encompassing many decades of observation over many economically developed countries, an analysis by skilled economists who reveal much about the efficacy of large changes in fiscal policy from taxes and from spending to spur an economy.

No Recovery--Some Find It Hot

Marilyn Monroe starred in Some Like It Hot. This is a wacky, clever, farcical comedy that is brilliantly directed by Billy Wilder. It starts off like a firecracker and keeps on throwing off lively sparks till the very end. "Hot" refers to a style of music...rag.


If our economic future is hot, it is going to be anything but funny. A hot scenario will be one hallmarked by significant inflation--something we haven't experienced in the US since the late 1970s.


If we see run-away inflation, then the US dollar isn't going to be worth as much.


In order to counteract these two-fold problems of inflation and a very weak dollar, the Feds will have to raise interest rates, just like Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s to help us through that difficult time.

Volcker's Fed is widely credited with ending the United States' stagflation crisis of the 1970s. Inflation, which peaked at 13.5% in 1981, was successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983.

The federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, was raised by Volcker to a peak of 20% in June 1981.

These changes in policy contributed to the significant recession the U.S. economy experienced in the early 1980s, which included the highest unemployment levels since the Great Depression, even higher than today.

Volcker's Fed elicited the strongest political attacks and most widespread protests in the history of the Federal Reserve (unlike any protests experienced since 1922), due to the effects of the high interest rates on the construction and farming sectors, culminating in indebted farmers driving their tractors into Washington for Tractorcade in 1979.


You can imagine the turmoil if this happens again. It will also lead to renewed problems in the housing market--and a stock market that will take it on the chin!

We already witnessed a bit of this last year with the tea party patriots rallies across the nation. Indeed, the election in Massachusetts today appears in part spurred on by voters concerns about run-away government in that state, and in Washington.