A Jobless Recovery--Too Cold for Comfort

This is the second in a series of US recovery scenarios, or lack thereof. Notice in this one, we only have red and blue statistical indicators.

Red bars are fast rising statistics. Blue bars represent quickly falling indicators.


This particular scenario hurts because we would continue to see unemployment rise. Lately it seems unemployment has "moderated" at 10%. Optimists hope that we have reached the peak.

But let's take a look at what David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, has to say. He has ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for the past seven years and was on the U.S. Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for the last four years.

He says there are serious structural issues undermining the US labor market. He thinks US unemployment is headed for 12-13%.

• For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is negative on a 10-year basis. Hence, the changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature.

• During this two-year recession, employment has declined a record 8 million. Even in percent terms, this is a record in the post-WWII experience.

• There are now a record 9.3 million Americans working part-time because they have no choice. In past recessions, that number rarely got much above six million.

• The work week has been sliced this cycle from 33.8 hours to a record low 33.0 hours--the labor input equivalent is another 2.4 million jobs lost.

• The number of permanent job losses this cycle (unemployed but not for temporary purposes) increased by a record 6.2 million. In fact, well over half of the total unemployment pool of 15.7 million was generated just in this past recession alone. A record 5.6 million people have been unemployed for at least six months (this number rarely gets above two million in a normal downturn).

• The longer it takes for these folks to find employment (and now they can go on the government benefit list for up to two years) the more difficult it is going to be to retrain them in the future when labor demand does begin to pick up.

• Not only that, but we have a youth unemployment rate now approaching a record 20%. Again, this is going to prove to be very problematic for employers in the future who are going to be looking for skills and experience when the boomers finally do begin to retire.

So even if the recession is officially declared over one of these days, many Americans could be left out in the cold.


Even if we experience a recovery, it may be weak. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said last year, The economy is stabilizing and recovery will begin in the second half (of 2009). The recovery will be weak compared with historic recoveries from recession. The recovery will be weak because the economy must make structural adjustments before the healthiest possible rate of growth can be achieved.

Lockhardt based his comments, in part, of work from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, which which reports survey results from America's leading business economists.


The points within the red circle represent all previous postwar recessions, and they form a nice, neat, easily discernible pattern. That is, the pace of growth in the first year after a recession has, in our history, been reliably related to how bad the recession was. The deeper the recession, the faster the recovery.

Within the blue circle (from top left of the circle to bottom right), the points represent the 10 lowest forecasts of the most optimistic members of the 50 Blue Chip forecasting panel, the panel's consensus (or average) forecast, and the 10 highest forecasts of the most pessimistic panel participants.

According to David Altig, senior vice president and research director at the Atlanta Fed, Either we are about to continue making history—and not in a good way—or current guesses about the medium-term economy are way too pessimistic.

Finally, I invite you to examine the recent commentary by Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian, head of the premiere bond fund company in the world.

He says inconsistencies that the market faces include:

• The tax on bailed out banks that President Obama announced Thursday and its effects on their ability to lend,
  
• Long-term unemployment issues and the difficulty in fixing them due to the federal budget deficit, and
  
• Weaknesses with sovereign balance sheets.

A Recovery Just Right

What will it take to have a healthy recovery in the US from the recent Great Recession? We can use this illustration, provided by the Wall Street Journal, to guide our thinking.

Red bars are fast rising statistics. Blue bars represent quickly falling indicators. And green, indicates factors of modest change.


As with the story of the three bears, we would like to see things in the US economy turn out just right. Let's see what that will take.


In order to obtain a just right result, we need continued growth in the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It has been doing well in the last couple of quarters.

We are statistically out of a recession, although it has yet to be officially declared. And pay no attention to the populist & political commentaries about jobs. That's a problem, but it is primarily GDP growth that defines recession & recovery, and NOT jobs growth or lack thereof.

Dare we hope for a rapidly rising GDP? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the future looks pretty bright for world economic growth. The IMF forecasts of a resumption of 4-5% positive growth in the world economy starting in 2011 and continuing through 2014.


Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would then move to increase interest rates, as he says he is prepared to do--but not until he sees a solid signal that unemployment is declining. Until then, with inflation being very low, he feels he can afford to keep interest rates very low for a while.

This will lead to stabilization in the US dollar--gold bugs will get killed with their speculative holdings--and we'll see onward growth in the stock market.

That's just about right--and we'll feel really good when we see that stubborn 10% unemployment rate come down, perhaps reaching the 5% level which we enjoyed just three years ago when the US economy was coming along pretty fine.

I'm Afraid of Heights

Earlier this week, the tallest man-made structure ever erected, the Burj Khalifa, formerly known as Burj Dubai, was opened in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, hovering at 2,717 feet, or just a wee bit taller than the ziggurat of Babel, of Old Testament lore, which some say rose to 60 feet above its Babylonian bed.


If you have but $1.5 billion, you might construct one yourself! The completion of the tower coincided with a worldwide economic slump and overbuilding, causing it to be described as the latest ... in [a] string of monuments to architectural vacancy.

Time will tell, however, I can guarantee I'll never be found up in a building that tall. It's probably safe, but I wouldn't feel secure.

Yellow Rose of Texas

A friend told me I forgot one flag in my reader tribute article last week. When I saw what he meant, I burst out laughing. Yes, Phil, while I did recognize many visitors from foreign nations from within the Americas, such as Brazil, I did forget Texas!!


I know it's the place of your pride & joy. I know my friend, Cliff, from Austin, regularly reads my articles.

Everyone should know I support the University of Texas, as they pursue the NCAA national football championship title, when they meet up with Alabama this coming Thursday.

Now nothing against the Crimson Tide, but I'm from the Big 12, and the Nebraska Cornhuskers' #1 fan. No, we couldn't defeat Texas in the Big 12 championship game last month, but save for the very last second, the Huskers had that game won!

Now if Texas but scores at least four points against Alabama, the Big Red will capture the #1 standing as best college defense (based on total points allowed), overtaking Alabama--and we look forward to the Huskers being back in the spotlight for a national championship bid next season.

We have five titles: 1970 & 1971, when I attended both at the Orange Bowl in Miami, being a sousaphone player in the Nebraska Cornhusker Marching Band. Titles were also captured in 1994, 1995 and 1997.

Our 1971 title came after defeating Bear Bryant's Alabama Crimson Tide, 38-6. Our conference, then the Big 8, was so dominant in college football that season, that the AP rankings ended with Nebraska #1, arch-rival Oklahoma Sooners #2 and the Colorado Buffaloes #3.

In a humble bit of trivia, your little tuba player's picture was captured within the pages of this Sports Illustrated issue.


Recently, blogger Mark Perry, professor of economics & finance at the University of Michigan, who hosts the outstanding Carpe Diem web site, compared the economic output of all 50 states to various countries around the globe.

Based on 2006 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) output of $14 trillion, he illustrated via map just how sizable & blessed we are. (Click if you wish to enlarge.)


Notice, Phil, that Texas matches up well with the nation of Brazil. So I believe I must apologize for my slight of your great state!

Perhaps I can make it up to you, by featuring the beauties of Texas in your state song, The Yellow Rose of Texas.