Weekends in Washington

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says lawmakers will work weekends to complete a sweeping health care bill because nothing can be more important than this. Reid said the Senate will work Saturdays and Sundays in December.


In my last blog, I introduced the concept of the prediction market. Recall: Investors from all around the world come to Intrade and place money down on specifically defined outcomes--either the outcome will happen or it won't.

The collective placement of money establishes a public priority on that issue.

Let's see how the probability has been trending for US national health care.

Intrade poses this question:

Health Care Reform - Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US? This federal government run health insurance plan must be approved before midnight ET December 31, 2009.

Last summer the odds for a federal government-run health insurance plan to be approved before the end of the year were around 50%. Remember President Obama's push for a vote on the bill before the August recess? Some thought this would be signed into law a few months ago.

Here is how the Intrade probabilities have been tracking:


Well, by now that makes a lot of sense. There is a LOT of work, amendments to consider and debate to occur, before the Senate gets to a final vote. Then the House & Senate bills need to be reconciled. Then it would have to go to President Obama for signing.

So notwithstanding Senator Reid's valiant effort to work on weekends in December, it's hard to imagine completing work on such a massive undertaking--a bill that encompasses 1/6th of the US economy by year end.

So let's look at another Intrade proposition--with monies being placed on passage by midnight ET on June 30, 2010.


Right now investors around the world aren't too hopeful for passage of a US health care bill in this form, ie, with a government-run public option.

Intrade involves real money being placed on the line to establish a probability of occurrence, in the view of these investors, every day the Intrade auction is open.

Now let's turn our attention to US attitudes about health care reform. Researchers Nate Silver, Andrew Gelman and Daniel Lee have applied a statistical method called multilevel regression and post-stratification. They mapped opinion on health care, breaking down opinions by age, family income and state. (Click to enlarge)

• Younger, lower-income Americans strongly support (green) increased government spending on health care

• Elderly and well-off Americans are very much against (red) the idea.

Whether you are for or against the particular type of health care reform that is popular among some in Congress, and loathe to others, you are guaranteed to witness one of the most important debates on far-reaching legislation in US history.